Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq:AMTX) has set forth a comprehensive 5-year strategy with the goal of achieving $2.0 billion in revenue and $644 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2028. This ambitious plan represents a significant leap from the company's fiscal year 2023 performance, which recorded $186.7 million in revenue and a $(22.4) million adjusted EBITDA. The strategy, detailed in a recent analysis by Stonegate Capital Partners, underscores Aemetis' dedication to expanding its renewable energy projects and enhancing its carbon sequestration initiatives.
The company's recent quarterly report highlights progress towards these targets, with increased revenue across all segments. The Keyes Ethanol Plant, for instance, contributed $45.0 million in revenue from the production of 15.5 million gallons of ethanol. Aemetis has also achieved a milestone with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approving 20 years of Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandates, expected to significantly benefit the company's U.S. projects.
Central to Aemetis' growth strategy is the Dairy Biogas Pipeline project, which plans to construct 66 dairy biogas digesters over the next five years. With 9 digesters already completed and 10 more funded, this project, alongside a 40-mile gas pipeline, is projected to generate $190.0 million in revenue and $122.6 million in adjusted EBITDA by fiscal year 2028.
In the renewable jet and diesel fuel sector, Aemetis is making strides with plans to build a 90 million gallon plant utilizing below zero carbon intensity cellulosic hydrogen. The acquisition of the Authority to Construct air permit in the first quarter of 2024 marks a critical step forward. This segment is expected to contribute $643.1 million in revenue and $165.1 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2028.
Aemetis has secured binding 10-year supply agreements with 10 airlines, including Delta Airlines and American Airlines, for sustainable aviation fuel, valued at $3.8 billion. Additionally, a $3.2 billion renewable diesel supply contract with a national travel stop company further solidifies the company's position in the renewable energy market.
The company's Keyes, California ethanol plant is set for upgrades with a mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system, aiming to reduce natural gas usage by 80% and increase annual cash flow by $15 million. Internationally, Aemetis' biodiesel plant in India is on track for expansion, with capacity expected to reach 100 million gallons by fiscal year 2025.
Stonegate Capital Partners has provided a valuation range for Aemetis of $15.69 to $22.93 per share, based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis of the company's fiscal year 2028 projections. As Aemetis advances its 5-year plan, the renewable energy sector watches closely, recognizing the potential implications of its success on the industry's future.
