Holiday shoppers are projected to spend at least 6 percent more this season, averaging $1,077 per household, according to Simon-Kucher's 7th Annual Holiday Shopping Report. The study reveals consumers are maintaining stricter budgets while shifting focus toward quality and value rather than price alone across most categories. Consumers are not looking for a one-size-fits-all discount strategy this holiday season, according to Shikha Jain, Partner and Head of Consumer and Retail for North America for Simon-Kucher.
The report indicates most consumers expect discounts up to 40 percent, with discounts up to 25 percent remaining common across different product categories. Spending patterns are category-specific, with more than 50 percent of consumers spending over $100 in high-value household appliances, home improvement, and electronics. Purchasing behavior shows 66 percent of early holiday shoppers favor Black Friday and other sales events, with shopping beginning as early as the 4th of July through Super Saturday.
Social media serves as a source of inspiration and influencer ideas for 64 percent of shoppers, while return rates remain low with three out of four consumers returning 10 percent or less of their purchases. Artificial intelligence has gone mainstream in holiday shopping, with 54 percent of consumers using AI for shopping support. Specifically, 23 percent use AI to track deals and 27 percent for price comparisons, though older generations prefer brainstorming their own gift ideas and choose not to use the technology.
External factors are influencing shopping decisions, with 44 percent of consumers expecting tariffs to have at least a moderate impact on holiday shopping. Nineteen percent are opting out of certain purchases due to budget constraints and commercialization concerns. Shoppers use an average of 2.4 payment methods, with 45 percent preferring debit cards as their primary payment option. The complete findings are detailed in the Holiday Shopping Report 2025 available through the research firm.
The study, conducted between July 25-31, 2025, surveyed 1,513 US consumers anonymously to determine holiday spending predictions. Researchers analyzed holiday spend per household relative to US population distribution by household income level, excluding the top and bottom 5 percent to focus on the median 90 percent of consumers. Similar to the past two years, most consumers expect discount sales up to 25 percent and consider Black Friday the best sales event, while Amazon continues to dominate online shopping and social media platforms gain traction for browsing.
