The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) reported that Hong Kong exporters have adopted a more cautious stance in the first quarter of 2026 amid ongoing global trade and economic uncertainties. The HKTDC 1Q26 Export Confidence Index showed moderate declines for two key indicators: the Current Performance Index stood at 46.5, while the Expectation Index returned a figure of 46.9, reflecting caution among survey respondents. Trade value expectations remained relatively steady, with the Trade Value Sub-Index near the neutral threshold, suggesting unit prices are expected to hold firm. Both the Current and Expected Inventory Sub-Index rose above 60, indicating inventory rundown amid growing shipments.
HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang noted that the outlook for many of Hong Kong's major markets has moderated, including the ASEAN bloc and the Chinese Mainland, largely due to ongoing geopolitical developments. Pang stated, "In the longer term, however, fundamental demand - especially for electronics and other consumer sectors - remains resilient. Hong Kong's trade prospects should stay positive, yet remain cautious, pending the further easing of global geopolitical conflicts." The full details of the index are available in the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 1Q26 report.
Despite the overall softening, several key sectors outperformed the overall Index. The jewellery sector rallied impressively, with its Current reading climbing to 57.1 and its Expectation reading rising to 56.0. The clothing sector also showed considerable improvement, with its Current Index rising to 52.1 and its Expectation Index increasing to 53.4. However, sentiment among electronics exporters weakened, with a Current reading of 44.9 and an Expectation reading of 45.6, signalling disruptions over the Chinese New Year period. Cost pressures showed signs of stabilising, with the Cost Sub-Index improving significantly, indicating potential sustained relief from cost pressures.
A thematic assessment of Hong Kong exporters' cross-border e-commerce business revealed that 46% of respondents were already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, while a further 20% plan to enter the sector within the coming year. Among companies already engaged, the Chinese Mainland ranked as the leading e-commerce sales destination at 24%, followed by the EU27 & UK at 17% and Canada & the US at 15%, while the ASEAN bloc at 14% continued to emerge as a promising market with notable growth potential. Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory, added, "Market diversification remains a key strategy for Hong Kong traders to mitigate risks. At the same time, more companies are leveraging e-commerce channels to boost sales and enhance business sustainability amid an uncertain external environment." Additional research and insights can be found on the HKTDC Research website.
