Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: NCSM) following the company's first-quarter 2026 earnings report, which fell short of expectations due to timing issues in Canada and select international projects. However, continued momentum in the U.S. market helped offset the shortfall, preserving the core investment thesis.
According to Stonegate's analysis, the quarter does not alter the fundamental outlook for NCSM, which is built around U.S. product momentum, the integration of ResMetrics, and the company's capital-light business model. Instead, it underscores the timing risks associated with Canada's seasonal operations and project-based international work. The key change is the expected cadence of earnings, with second-quarter 2026 guidance implying a softer near-term trough, while full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains intact, pointing to a recovery weighted toward the second half of the year. This recovery is expected to be driven by deferred Canadian work, recurring activity from Repeat Precision, and synergies from ResMetrics.
Separately, management noted that the 2026 guidance excludes potential sliding sleeve deliveries for its first deepwater Gulf of Mexico opportunity, which could materialize in late 2026 or early 2027. This represents a potential upside catalyst not yet reflected in current forecasts.
Key takeaways from the update include: first-quarter results missed on Canada and international timing, but U.S. revenue more than doubled year-over-year, supporting the thesis; full-year EBITDA guidance was maintained, shifting focus to a second-half recovery and execution of Repeat Precision; and positive free cash flow combined with $53 million in liquidity supports ResMetrics integration, capacity expansion, and growth investments. For more details, the full announcement is available here.
