The U.S. eCommerce market continues to expand at a record pace, driven by the convergence of mobile technology, generative AI, and new retail infrastructure designed for speed and personalization. According to Mordor Intelligence, U.S. eCommerce is projected to grow from $1.25 trillion in 2025 to $2.08 trillion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 10.7 percent. This expansion represents not just numerical growth but a fundamental transformation in consumer behavior and retail dynamics.
Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts in the U.S., while generative AI is improving conversion rates by aligning search intent with product discovery. The integration of these technologies is creating a more intelligent and convenient shopping experience that bridges the gap between consumer awareness and purchasing action. At the same time, eCommerce sales climbed 7.5% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $1.1 trillion, and now represent 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales, according to Digital Commerce 360 and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Amazon remains the dominant force in this evolving landscape, holding roughly 40% of the U.S. eCommerce market, nearly triple the combined online sales of its next three competitors. However, Walmart is quickly closing the gap, reporting 23% year-over-year growth in online sales in 2024 and more than $120 billion in digital revenue. The consolidation of retail powerhouses is setting new standards for logistics and personalization while creating opportunities for smaller, high-quality brands that can demonstrate market readiness.
The transformation extends beyond simple sales growth to redefine how consumers discover, evaluate, and purchase products. Generative AI is helping consumers find what they actually want while enabling brands to tell their stories in ways that resonate faster and more authentically. This technological convergence is changing the entire distribution playbook, requiring brands to synchronize data, fulfillment, and storytelling across every platform consumers use.
Success in the current eCommerce environment requires treating online and physical retail as interconnected worlds rather than separate channels. The winners in this $2 trillion market will be those who can orchestrate their presence across multiple platforms while maintaining consistency in customer experience, product availability, and brand messaging. This strategic approach to distribution and market readiness will define competitive advantage through the remainder of the decade as the retail landscape continues its rapid evolution.
